Weather

853 
fxus62 kmfl 292313 aab 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
712 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Aviation...coverage of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain over the Atlantic has decreased 
quite a bit over the past hour...so will only include vcsh at all 
but kapf through the night. Winds will relax by just a few knots 
overnight. For Saturday...winds will increase out of the east at 
around 15 knots with frequent gusts to around 20 knots. Higher gusts will 
accompany shra/tsra. They will be fast moving...so kept with only 
thunderstorms in the vicinity at all sites at this time. /Dg 


&& 


Update... 
updated the going forecast for the overnight to raise probability of precipitation 
significantly...bringing the Atlantic waters and southeastern land 
areas up to likely probability of precipitation given low level trough rotating in from 
the east with good coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Even 
though this activity may weaken some as it moves onshore...more 
showers and thunderstorms continue to develop upstream over the 
Bahamas and with strong easterly flow just off the surface it 
would appear that showers or thunderstorms could move onshore 
across the southeast coast at any time overnight. 


For marine interests...based on latest model guidance and current 
observation have increased winds across the local waters tonight raising 
exercise caution flags for the Atlantic and Gulf waters as well as 
Biscayne Bay. Also have headlined Small Craft Advisory may be 
needed Saturday for the southern Atlantic leg...Biscayne Bay...and 
Gulf waters as gradient will increase and sustained winds of 20 to 
25 knots will be possible. 


/Strassberg 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 331 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008/ 


Discussion...Hurricane Gustav (newly upgraded) is making progress 
northwest about 100 miles south of eastern Cuba and South Florida 
is feeling somewhat of an increase in east winds. Gustav will be 
west of the area in the Gulf Sunday afternoon. Have noticed a 
trough of low pressure over the northern Bahamas which may 
possibly be connected somewhat to Gustav is enhancing convection. 
I think that is the reason the probability of precipitation go up this weekend since this 
enhanced area of convection and increasing pwat's to near 2.5 
inches will be over South Florida. Anyway, we will be in the 
northeast quadrant of Gustav which is the wettest side. Probability of precipitation 
decrease for Monday as the T.C. Moves further northwest. Have used 
the tropical coastal waters forecast and got wording of tropical storm conditions 
possible Saturday night and Sunday due to high enough precipitable waters  numbers. 
By Thursday or Friday, Hanna will be our next problem and still a 
bit to far out to say where it will eventually track. Stay tuned! 


Marine...moderate east winds will continue and eventually 
becoming southeast and gusty Saturday night and early Sunday as 
Gustav passes and then becoming more north and northeast and gusty 
to 25 knots as Hanna gets closer to the area. Seas will increase 
to 6 feet early Saturday and then decrease Sunday afternoon. 
Will probably need caution headlines tonight outer Gulf waters 
and for seas Saturday for wind and seas Atlantic and Gulf. 


Fire weather...no problems with fire weather since there will be 
plenty of moisture available. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 79 88 80 88 / 40 70 50 70 
Fort Lauderdale 80 87 79 87 / 60 70 50 70 
Miami 79 87 79 88 / 60 70 50 70 
Naples 77 91 76 91 / 30 70 50 70 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Long term...18/gr 
short term/aviation...04/at