Weather

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fxus62 kmlb 111740 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
140 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Discussion... 


..marine conditions across the Atlantic deteriorating Sunday 
afternoon through Tuesday... 
..rough surf at the beaches Monday and Tuesday... 


Tonight-sun...radar detecting showers and a storm or two in the 
developing northeast flow over the coastal waters while the latest 
visible satellite images was showing the northeast southwest 
orientation of the cloud lines. The inverted trough east of Florida/Georgia 
which is a surface reflection of the filling upper level low east of 
Georgia/SC will be pushed west and absorbed by the high pressure that is 
building down the East Coast. The winds along the coast should start 
increasing late Sunday when whats left of the inverted trough is 
well west of the area and high pressure has begun building down the 
coast in earnest. Developing onshore flow will keep overnight lows 
along the coast at or above their climatology middle and upper 60s and the 
upper 60s and lower 70s for the interior locations. Am expecting 
more showery weather rather storms in the deepening onshore flow. 


Sun ngt-Monday...surface high pressure across Virginia/NC region will allow 
pressure gradient to tighten from 6-7 mbs from jax-mia. 
Strengthening east northeast flow Sunday night will allow a band of 
showers with locally heavy rain to move onshore which both the 
GFS/NAM center on the Brevard County coast. Have increased probability of precipitation to 
50 percent across central coastal sections with the GFS/NAM in good 
agreement for a 36-48 hour forecast. Similar pop regime for Monday with 
breezy conds for well interior sections and windy at the coast as 
Atlantic showers continue to stream onshore. Will limit highs to the lower 
80s beaches to middle 80s interior on Monday. Expect rough surf at the 
beaches as well which will be a hazard to beach goers. 


Monday night-Tuesday...onshore gradient continues to produce breezy 
to windy conditions with deep layer drying beginning to take hold late 
Monday night into Tuesday...will continue low coastal probability of precipitation Monday night and 
then just go 10 percent Tuesday with very isolated Atlantic shower activity 
pushing toward the coast. Another day with rough...and borderline high 
surf and an elevated risk of rip currents. Should see more sunshine 
Tuesday as airmass dries out except the very low levels. 


Wed-Fri...no significant changes needed to extended time frame per 
the 12z guidance...previous disc...the active pattern with mainly zonal flow 
over the northern Continental U.S. Will flatten deep layer ridging across the 
south through this period and drier conditions will continue from 
middle week into late week. Pop chances will remain 20% or less through 
this timeframe. Low-level flow to remain mainly east/northeast and 
expect a continuation of dangerous conditions (surf/rips) at the 
beaches. 


&& 


Aviation...local MVFR in/near lines of marine stratocu...and the 
showers/storms mainly over northern interior and all along the 
coast. Light winds and relative humidity/S nearing 100 percent favor patches of 
MVFR/IFR fog toward sunrise 


&& 


Marine...weather buoys recording northeast winds 10 to 15 knots and 
2 to 4 foot seas. Winds may diminish as the inverted trough moves 
west then increase to small craft exercise caution thresholds late 
Sunday morning and to Small Craft Advisory speeds/wave heights 
Sunday afternoon. Marine conditions will deteriorate rapidly Sunday 
night with treacherous winds (to 25 knots) /seas (to 10 ft) across 
the Atlantic waters Monday into Tuesday. Should see some improvement by 
middle to late week as gradient begins to relax by Thursday and Friday...but 
moderate east-northeast swells will continue. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 72 85 74 83 / 30 50 40 40 
mco 71 87 73 86 / 20 40 30 40 
mlb 74 86 79 84 / 30 40 50 50 
vrb 75 87 79 84 / 30 40 50 50 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Tuesday 
for Atlantic waters from Flagler Beach Jupiter Inlet to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term/aviation...Wimmer 
long term....volkmer