Weather

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fxus62 ktbw 071723 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
123 PM EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis...an upper ridge off the California coast is sharpening northward 
offshore British Columbia. Large scale troughing reaches from 
central Canada to the U.S. Plains and Midwest. Another upper ridge 
over the Atlantic...centered near 35 north/ 55 west...extends over 
Florida to the East Gulf. Hanna near New England is along the north end 
of a cold front which extends southwesterly across the southeast U.S. To 
the northwest Gulf coastal waters. High pressure over the Atlantic ridges 
westward to southeast Georgia and NE Florida with a weak high pressure center in the 
NE Gulf. Hurricane Ike is east of the eastern tip of Cuba. 


&& 


Short term (tonight - tuesday)...generally pleasant conditions 
will continue tonight and into early Monday as the high pressure 
over the NE Gulf and North Florida lifts north. Approaching Hurricane 
Ike will bring increasing chances of precipitation and a tightening 
gradient...both increasing from south to north...as Ike moves by 
South Florida from late Monday into Tuesday. Have ramped both clouds and probability of precipitation 
up through Tuesday with probability of precipitation running from 40 north to 60 south by Tuesday. 
Temperatures will remain slightly above average until Tuesday when 
mins drop to average and highs decrease to just below average. 


Long term (tuesday night-sunday)...moisture is expected to return 
to central and southwest Florida during the week as Hurricane Ike 
moves to the south...and eventually west...of the area. Scattered 
storm coverage is expected each day and early evening...with 
convection generally favoring off-shore areas at night. Winds will 
be brisk Wednesday with a tight pressure gradient over the area 
north of Ike. Temperatures will generally hover near normal during 
the week. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions should be expected during the next 24 
hours. 


&& 


Marine...north or northwest winds around 10kt with 2ft seas to prevail 
through the remainder of today. Winds then begin to veer tonight 
and Monday as Hurricane Ike approaches with deteriorating conditions 
for for early to midweek...especially on the outer waters and some 
of the southern waters. Mariners should closely monitor the future 
track of Hurricane Ike and stay tuned to the latest forecasts from 
the National Hurricane Center and your National Weather Service 
office. 


&& 


Fire weather...increasing moisture will preclude any fire weather 
concerns west/r/T relative humidity. However dispersion indices will become elevated 
as both surface and transport winds increase. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tpa 78 92 77 88 / 10 20 20 50 
fmy 76 92 76 89 / 10 30 20 60 
gif 76 92 76 89 / 10 20 20 50 
srq 76 92 77 89 / 10 20 20 50 
bkv 72 92 74 89 / 10 20 20 40 
spg 81 92 80 88 / 10 20 20 50 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Gulf waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...rude 
aviation...cantin 
rawinsonde...Rhea