Weather

458 
fxus62 kjax 070806 
afdjax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
400 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Short term...today through Tuesday 


Today will be a lot like yesterday...ample sunshine with temperatures 
topping out in the low to middle 90s. The main difference will be the 
humidity levels. Although the ambient temperature will be roughly the 
same...it will feel hotter today because of the higher dewpoints 
(upper 60s as opposed to the lower 60s). This will result in heat 
index values close to 100f by late morning. The boundary layer 
flow will be very light in the morning and this will result in an 
early start to the seabreeze. Both NAM and GFS show the seabreeze 
clearing the jax international Airport by 2pm. This will help with 
temperatures slightly but dewpoints behind the boundary will go back up 
into the 70s...keeping it sticky. The seabreeze boundary should be 
strong enough to March all the way across our County Warning Area. Subsidence and 
dry air aloft will limit thunderstorm activity today but the 
active seabreeze alone warrants at least slight chance probability of precipitation away 
from the coast where the atmosphere will have longer to 
destabilize. Will maintain higher probability of precipitation (~30%) across interior 
southeast Georgia and Suwannee Valley where a sliver of residual 
moisture along a weakening surface boundary will reside. 


The seabreeze today will usher in an extended return to deep 
onshore flow as the ridge axis begins to get pushed north by 
Hurricane Ike...which will be moving in a westerly direction 
toward eastern Cuba today. This moist flow will result in 
isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorms on Monday. Coastal 
convergence...especially at night and during the first part of the 
morning...will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm activity 
along the coast beginning Monday night. 


Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the entire area on 
Tuesday as deep tropical moisture continues to establish 
itself...compliments of Hurricane Ike which is forecast to reach 
the southeast Gulf late Tuesday. 




Long term...Wednesday through Saturday 


Models are now in much better agreement with regards to the fate 
of Ike as it moves into the Gulf. All models now show Ike moving 
in a northwesterly direction...reaching the central Gulf of Mexico 
by Thursday night. By Wednesday...deep tropical moisture will be 
firmly established and an increase in diurnal shower and 
thunderstorm activity is expected through Friday. Coastal 
convergence will continue to lead to the possibility of showers 
along the coast each night. Extra cloud cover from Ike will result 
in daytime temperatures closer to normal levels...middle to upper 80s....but 
humidity levels will be high as dewpoints are prognosticated to climb 
well into the 70s. Overnight lows will check in above normal 
levels....with middle 70s...possibly upper 70s along the coast. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions are forecast. Have included tempo 
6sm mifg through 12z. 


&& 


Marine...swells upwards of 5 feet are impacting the area waters and 
swells will continue to dominate the seas through tonight. Hurricane 
Ike is forecast to advance west over Cuba or its adjacent waters 
tonight and into early next week. This coupled with high pressure 
anchored to our north will present tightening onshore gradient with 
combined seas upwards of 9 feet expected early next week. No 
headlines today...with scec conditions establishing over the 
offshore legs tonight...with Small Craft Advisory conditions possibly establishing 
over these legs on Monday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 95 71 91 72 / 30 10 20 20 
ssi 90 76 86 76 / 20 10 20 20 
jax 93 73 89 74 / 20 10 20 20 
sgj 90 76 87 77 / 10 10 30 20 
gnv 93 72 90 72 / 20 10 20 20 
ocf 94 73 90 73 / 10 10 30 20 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Am...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Shuler/zappe