Weather

643 
fxus62 kjax 071422 
afdjax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
1020 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Short term...skies are mostly sunny across the area with some 
lingering low ceilings over interior areas. This cloudiness will lift 
and thin over the next hour. Will remove morning fog wording on the 
morning update. 


Upstream quasi-stationary front and pre-frontal trough with lingering 
outflow from overnight convection will act as low-level focusing 
mechanisms for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development. Best moisture axis 
appears to be across southeast Georgia and the Florida Panhandle...and this is where 
our highest probability of precipitation will remain. There is middle-level forcing in this 
area from weak divergence...weak differential positive vorticity 
advection...and weak qn vector convergence. These features...along 
with the weak low-level forcing...a fairly strong Atlantic seabreeze... 
and increasing instability will lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm 
development. Negative buoyancy in the low-levels will be a limiting 
factor to storm initiation...and development may hold off until 
mid-aftn. Storm motion will be slow...so there will be some heavy 
rain potential. This will be tempered somewhat by modest precipitation water 
values. 


&& 


Aviation...added IFR conditions this morning fog kgnv with MVFR at 
kjax and kcrg. May need vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity at taf sites this afternoon...but best 
coverage of showers and storms will be farther inland. 


&& 


Marine...have tweaked seas up around a foot this afternoon and tonight 
to better match surrounding buoy observation. Have introduced small craft 
advisories into the offshore waters starting Monday morning in the NE 
Florida zones. Thanx for the coordinate kmlb. 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 10 am Monday to 8 PM Tuesday for Fernandina 
Beach to Flagler Beach Florida 20 to 60 nm offshore. 


Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 8 PM Tuesday for Altamaha 
Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida 20 to 60 nm offshore. 
&& 


$$ 


Carroll/Kerns