Weather

634 
fxus62 kmlb 280152 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
950 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 27 2008 


Discussion... 
diurnal convection is slowly playing out across the County Warning Area. One 
remaining area of heavy rain over Okeechobee County should dissipate 
within the hour. Very heavy rainfall occurred with some of the storms 
as they collapsed...the mlb National Weather Service office received 2.16" between 
8:30-9:30pm this evening. 


Remainder of the evening will be quiet once the last of the precipitation 
dissipates. Surface ridge axis over the central/southern peninsula will 
maintain a light S/southeasterly flow across the area overnight. Debris 
clouds and high moisture through the h100-h70 layer will help keep min 
temperatures in the M/u70s overnight. 


Will hold off on the update until the precipitation ends over Okeechobee 
County...will increase the sky cover for the next few hours over the 
southern County Warning Area to reflect the remnants of the evening convection. 
Otherwise...no significant changes necessary to the afternoon forecast. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR all sites through 14z. 


&& 


Marine... 
no highlights...no sig changes. Surface ridge extending from Grand 
Bahama Island to Fort Myers will combine with the remnant low of 
T.S. Fay over the deep/middle south to generate a light south-southeast breeze over 
the coastal waters overnight. The resulting short fetch length and 
minimal swell will keep seas at or below 3ft. 


&& 


Hydrology...(prev disc) 
rates of slow water rise will continue in many areas...but if 
there's any positive news it's that the rate of rise near Geneva has 
been less than 0.10 feet over the past 24 hours...much less than in 
previous days. River flood warnings will continue on the St Johns 
River for all east central Florida forecast points from Lake Harney to 
Lake George for the next several days. The forecast point at Geneva 
near Lake Harney has exceeded the all time record. Moderate flooding 
is occurring near Sanford and expected near Deland...with the river 
expected to crest near or slightly above levels reached in 2004 near 
Sanford and Deland this weekend. Also note...even after crests are 
reached the river levels will be slow to fall as well. See the 
latest flood statement /miaflsmlb/ for the latest information on 
river flooding on the St Johns River. 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Bragaw