Weather

479 
fxus64 kmob 212225 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
430 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Synopsis...taking a look at the current upper air analysis...a 
weakly organized low was analyzed over SW California...with another over the 
North Atlantic high pressure was analyzed over the SW Continental U.S./Mex 
border...and also over the Florida Panhandle with a ridge running north. 
The system over the plains yesterday is moving northeast...over 
the middle/upper miss River Valley. Fay has started moving westward this 
afternoon...with the eye moving over the northwest Florida Atlantic coast. 
Looking at the lower levels of the troposphere...there is a weakly 
organized line over eastern MS to the MS Gulf Coast. Winds have gone 
direct northerly in the lowest 5k' on the kevx vwp...though the kmob 
is still showing a light NE. Moisture...well...with systems to the northwest 
and east...there is currently a very soupy airmass over the forecast area. 


&& 


Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...through the short 
term...Fay approaches the forecast area...with current thinking that the eastern 
regions of the forecast area will start seeing winds 20kts+ Saturday 
morning...reaching the western edges of the forecast area by early afternoon as 
the center of Fay's circulation begins moving over the Florida Panhandle. 
Current forecast does not have the center of Fay over the Gulf waters 
as it approaches the forecast area...so do not anticipate any strengthening as 
it moves over the forecast area...so am not expecting widespread wind problems. 
Am expecting the draw of Gulf moisture to possibly start creating 
flooding problems as early as Saturday afternoon...mainly southeast of 
I-65...so have put a Flash Flood Watch for this area. All in all...a pretty 
straight forward forecast. Just an increase in book-keeping. 


Long term...there is still some uncertainty with the path...along 
with some guidance indicating some noodling of Fay over MS the first 
half of the week. Have little confidence in the forecast after the 
short term because of this uncertainty. Have left the previous 
extended pretty much as is except to blend with the short term. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions next 24 hours...but worsening conditions 
expected Friday night into Saturday as affects of Fay approach from 
the east. 


&& 


Marine...Tropical Storm Fay is forecast to continue moving very 
slowly to the west across northern Florida tonight...moving slowly 
west along the western Florida Panhandle through Saturday as a 
Tropical Depression. Fay will bring increasing winds over the Gulf 
coastal waters of northwest Florida and Alabama this weekend. Marine 
interests should closely monitor the latest forecasts from the 
National Weather Service on the track and strength of Fay through 
this weekend. 


&& 


Fire weather...weather through the weekend into the coming week 
will be dominated by the passage of Fay this weekend. Low level 
northeasterly winds will increase from the east starting Friday 
afternoon into Friday night...with the higher winds reaching 
southeast Mississippi by midnight Friday. The heavier rains are 
expected as the center of the system passes ... large amounts 
expected. Fay will pass generally west of the area by Tuesday...but 
there are still questions on the possibility of Fay meandering 
around over the area longer next week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 73 89 72 85 74 / 20 20 40 60 60 
Pensacola 75 91 73 86 75 / 20 30 60 70 70 
Destin 74 87 74 84 75 / 30 60 80 80 70 
Evergreen 72 87 73 83 73 / 20 40 60 80 80 
Waynesboro 72 90 72 85 71 / 20 30 30 70 60 
Camden 71 88 73 84 73 / 20 40 50 80 80 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday for the 
following zones: Butler...Conecuh...Covington...Crenshaw... 
and Escambia. 


Florida...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday for the 
following zones: coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa... 
coastal Santa Rosa...inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa... 
and inland Santa Rosa. 


MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$