Weather

501 
fxus62 kmlb 070719 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
318 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 




Discussion... 


Today-tonight...high pressure continues surface and aloft. Surface 
ridge axis located to the north with onshore flow and early movement 
of ecsb inland can be expected. Precipitable waters  remain relatively low so have 
left mentionable probability of precipitation out of most areas today and tonight. Only 
exception is southern coastal zones as increasing onshore component 
should allow a few coastal showers to move onshore the coast...especially 
after midnight. Temperatures again reaching upper 80s/near 90 near the East 
Coast and lower 90s interior. Good deal of sunshine and lack of rain 
make it a seemingly nice beach day. However...a very long period 
ocean swell of 13-15 second will make swimming dangerous with a high 
risk of rip currents and rough surf. Will highlight threat in severe weather potential statement. 


Mon-Wed...forecast dependent on track of Hurricane Ike and position 
and strength of the high pressure system extending from the middle 
Atlantic into West Virginia/Ohio Monday and Tuesday with lingering swell 
impacting the surf zone into Wednesday. As "ike" approaches and moves over 
Cuba...the gradient between the high pressure to the north and "ike" 
will tighten over a large easterly fetch of water. With the current 
model run showing a 20 to 30 knot wind over the open waters of the 
Atlantic between the two systems one could expect breezy to windy 
conditions at the beaches with building surf and a high risk of rip 
currents at the beaches and breezy inland counties. Although Ike is 
forecast to move over Cuba during this time frame...deep layer 
moisture associated with the circulation will impact the coast Cape 
Canaveral south. Bands of quick moving showers tracking across the 
coastal waters will come ashore Brevard south and move inland. 50/60 
north to south pop for Tuesday looks reasonable at this time for the 
coastal counties Cape Canaveral south with the 60 pop Saint Lucie 
and Martin counties. 60 pop everywhere Wednesday looks acceptable as winds 
continue veering to the southeast and draw more Caribbean and Bahama 
moisture northward. 


Thu-sun...50 pop everywhere Thursday with lingering high moisture values 
then dropping to diurnal 30 pop during the day and early evening 
Fri-sun. Although moisture may be deep enough...winds may not be 
strong enough for anything more than an isolated late night/early 
morning coastal convergence shower south of Cape Canaveral. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR. 


&& 


Marine...long period easterly swell will build into Tuesday. As this 
occurs headlines will again need to be raised...with some caution 
headlines likely needed over the offshore waters late tonight or 
early Monday. Expect rainband type showers and an isolated thunderstorm 
over southern waters as Ike moves over Cuba and the Florida Straits. 
Expecting rough conditions in the surf zone with a high probability 
of high surf and strong rip currents again. Wed-Thu...lingering long 
period swell on Wednesday subsides below small craft threshold Thursday. 


&& 


Hydrology...rainfall not expected over middle/Upper Basin again today 
then increase in moisture early to middle week with return of scattered 
showers and storms. Activity will mainly act to aggravate ongoing 
flooding and hamper an already slow decline in stage. For the 
latest information on St Johns River flooding see the river flood 
statement /miaflsmlb/. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 90 75 88 78 / 10 10 20 30 
mco 94 73 91 75 / 10 10 20 30 
mlb 89 76 89 79 / 10 10 30 40 
vrb 88 77 86 80 / 10 20 30 40 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...glitto 
long term....Wimmer