Weather

170 
fxus64 kmob 280346 aab 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
1045 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2008 


Aviation update for 28/06z...high pressure over the area will 
maintain the generally clear skies over the area. Just a few 
scattered clouds from time to time...might get a brief ceiling 
between 4 and 8 thousand above ground level. May also be some brief MVFR conditions 
in patchy light fog or haze around sunrise. /11 


Marine update...went ahead and increased the winds over the marine 
area given the latest forecast track of Gustav. The latest 
probability grids put hurricane conditions possible in the last day 
of the marine forecast. Also increased the wave heights to agree 
with guidance and neighbors. /11 


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Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...the remnants of Fay 
currently over far eastern Tennessee continues northeastward through 
Thursday while an upper trough pattern remains over the eastern 
states. A large shortwave system moves across the plains and 
central Canadian provinces and phases with the trough over the eastern 
states Friday night...with both shifting eastward into the Atlantic 
Saturday night. A surface low associated with the plains shortwave 
system moves to the Great Lakes region on Friday with a trailing 
front gradually settling into the Gulf Coast states through Friday 
night. The front stalls over the forecast area on Saturday then 
dissipates Saturday night as the fringes of Gustav's circulation 
begin to affect the area. Will have small probability of precipitation generally near the 
coast and southwest portion of the forecast area on Thursday on 
Friday...then small probability of precipitation areawide on Saturday. Temperatures will be 
above seasonable levels each day and near seasonable at night. /29 


&& 


Long term (sunday through wednesday)...the long term forecast is 
becoming increasingly affected by the NHC track for Gustav. Given 
the traditional uncertainty with the day four and five positions for 
Gustav...will stay with small probability of precipitation Sunday then chance probability of precipitation for a 
portion of the area Monday through Wednesday...with temperatures 
near seasonable levels. Will adjust the forecast towards increasing 
probability of precipitation and more moderate temperatures if the track projection 
continues to place Gustav at the central Gulf Coast on Monday. 
Needless to say...all interests along the central Gulf Coast region 
should keep a close eye on the position...intensity and forecast 
track of Gustav. /29 


&& 


Aviation [18z taf issuance]...VFR conditions continue through 
tomorrow morning. Generally scattered clouds with bases of 3-4 kft 
with not enough of a chance of rain to include in the taf. /13 


&& 


Marine...a ridge of high pressure will dominate the northern Gulf 
through the end of the week. This will continue a generally light 
and variable flow that becomes onshore in the afternoon and offshore 
at night. Late in the weekend into early next week Tropical Storm 
Gustav is expected to enter the central Gulf of Mexico as a 
hurricane. This will bring increasing winds and swell to the coastal 
waters starting potentially starting as early as Saturday. All 
interests are urged to continue to monitor the latest forecasts from 
the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Gustav. /13 


&& 


Fire weather...no concerns through Friday. /29 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 70 93 72 94 / 10 20 20 20 
Pensacola 74 92 74 93 / 10 20 20 20 
Destin 75 90 76 91 / 10 20 10 10 
Evergreen 66 93 65 94 / 10 10 10 10 
Waynesboro 64 92 66 94 / 05 10 10 10 
Camden 66 94 65 95 / 05 10 10 10 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


29 Eversole 
13 Cullen