Weather

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fxus62 ktae 111852 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
252 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Short term (tonight through Monday night)...large scale features 
are evolving pretty much as expected. Deep layer ridge is building 
over the northeastern states trapping the upper low and surface trough 
off the NE Florida coast. The upper low and surface trough will be 
forced westward over the next 24 to 36 hours underneath the ridge. 
Increasing low level gradient and associated surface convergence is 
generating scattered showers over the eastern half of the County Warning Area this 
afternoon. Expect this general pattern to continue through Monday 
until the trough gets west of the County Warning Area. Trough will be moving over 
the County Warning Area Sunday afternoon...and this is when the highest probability of precipitation of 
the event are expected. Probability of precipitation will then be on the decrease Monday 
as the trough washes out. Temperatures will remain seasonable 
through the short term with plenty of low cloud cover. Fog 
formation at night should be limited by sufficient boundary layer 
winds. 


Long term (tuesday through saturday)...after several runs showing 
good agreement between the GFS and 12 UTC European model (ecmwf)...their long range 
solutions are beginning to diverge. Both models show an upper ridge 
hanging on over the southeast U.S on Tuesday. The GFS then retrogrades the 
high to the western Gulf by Thursday with a zonal pattern developing 
across much of the Continental U.S. Which stalls a weak surface front well 
north of the local region. The upper ridge then builds during the 
remainder of the period with axis through the nations middle section 
which induces weak troughing along the eastern U.S. The European model (ecmwf) 
solution shows the upper ridge lingering over the southeast corner of the 
U.S Wednesday. The ridge then weakens and retreats to the east as a 
deepening trough swings from the plains on Thursday and off the southeast 
U.S coast on Saturday. At the surface...this sends a cold front into 
and across our County Warning Area late Friday/early Saturday with a much drier 
airmass filtering in on Saturday. The European model (ecmwf) shows only light quantitative precipitation forecast 
amounts with this front. Either solution...Tuesday through Thursday 
should be dry. The only days in question for probability of precipitation will be Friday and 
Saturday. Due to the uncertainty...will leave out any mention of 
probability of precipitation for now. Temperatures will continue to be above climatology with maximum 
readings generally in the middle to upper 80s and min temperatures in the 
lower to middle 60s. 




&& 


Aviation...blanket of stratocumulus covers much of Georgia and 
Alabama with ceilings being reported between 2000 and 5000 feet. 
However...some breaks are beginning to pop up. Also...scattered to broken 
ceilings are being reported in North Florida. Cloudy VFR/MVFR conditions 
should persist through the afternoon hours. A few light showers 
could develop this afternoon over NE Florida and southeast Georgia and move 
west...and may even continue overnight...particularly at vld and 
areas east of tlh and aby. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions to 
develop again across the region late tonight and into Sunday 
morning. 


&& 


Marine...winds continue to slowly increase over the coastal 
waters as strong high pressure builds down the eastern Seaboard. 
Will have scec conditions tonight over the offshore legs. Small 
craft conditions expected by late Sunday afternoon and continuing 
through Monday. 


&& 


Fire weather...no fire weather concerns. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Tallahassee 66 83 68 84 65 / 10 30 20 20 10 
Panama City 69 83 70 83 69 / 10 20 20 20 10 
Dothan 64 79 65 83 62 / 10 30 20 20 10 
Albany 64 79 66 82 62 / 30 40 30 20 10 
Valdosta 65 81 67 83 63 / 30 40 20 20 10 
Cross City 66 85 68 86 64 / 10 30 20 20 10 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Camp/Watson/Barry