Weather

644 
fxus61 kokx 070620 
afdokx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Upton New York 
220 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
Tropical Storm Hanna is moving rapidly away form the area. Please 
refer to the latest statement from the National Hurricane Center 
for further details on Hanna. 


Northwesterly flow in the wake of Hanna today will result in sunny 
skies and lower humidity...but with temperatures still in the 
80s. Cold front moving across the region Tuesday afternoon and 
evening will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. 


High pressure then builds in Wednesday through the end of the 
week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
Tropical Storm Warning was discontinued as of 2 am as Hanna moves into 
Rhode Island. 


Skies are clearing from west to east. Northwesterly winds over 
eastern CT and Long Island are still gusting into the 30s...but 
will quickly subside by morning. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Tuesday/... 
as the storm quickly departs...northwesterly flow results in dry 
mild weather. Plenty of sunshine expected. 


While it is will be a great beach day - the high surf on the ocean will 
be slow to subside...so Ocean Beach goers should remain out of 
the water. 


General flat middle and upper level flow Sunday night through Monday 
night. At the surface...high pressure builds overhead early 
Monday...then passes east of the area Monday night and Tuesday. 


Next shortwave...which is handled differently with regard to 
strength and thus movement from op models and various ens 
members...approaches Monday night and Tuesday. Surface warm front 
approaches the region Monday night/early Tuesday morning...followed by 
cold front. Increasing southerly flow and associated warm air 
advection will result in increasing chances for showers/tstms. 
Slight chance with the warm front...with better chances with the cold 
front late in the day. 


As for temperatures...near to slightly above normal temperatures expected. 
Again...followed MOS blend which was in decent agreement. Some high 
temperature disparities inland noted. Blend ensured middle of the Road 
solution at this time. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
high pressure will build into the area after a cold front sweeps 
through Tuesday night...resulting in dry conditions for Wednesday 
and Thursday. By Friday...high pressure slides off the coast 
resulting in return southerly flow. Precipitation chances increase Friday 
and Saturday as the next frontal system approaches the area. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/... 
VFR condition in the wake of T.S. Hanna. 


Northwesterly wind gusts are problematic to NYC metropolitan 
configuration with ewr having more than 12 knots tail wind on runway 
11. 




Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday... 
high pressure and VFR Monday. Showers/thunderstorms could produce sub VFR 
conditions Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night ahead of an approaching 
cold front. High pressure and VFR conditions return Wednesday and Thursday. 


&& 


Marine... 
Tropical Storm Hanna departing the region. 


Small Craft Advisory is up for winds through at least middle morning...but gusts into 
the lower 20s knot range is likely into the afternoon. Seas will 
slowly subside on the ocean to around 5 feet by tonight. 


High pressure builds in through Monday. Increasing southerly flow 
Tuesday ahead of next front. 


Winds and seas are likely to reach Small Craft Advisory criterion Tuesday night into 
early Wednesday as a cold front sweeps through the area. Winds and 
seas subside later on Wednesday as high pressure builds into the 
region. Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criterion 
through Thursday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
no more rain until Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches. 


River will slowly subside today. 


Okx watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for anz330- 
335-338-340-345-350-353-355. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...jst 
near term...jst 
short term...jst 
long term...mas 
aviation...jst 
marine...jst 
hydrology...jst