Weather

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afdokx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Upton New York 
329 am EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure north of the area will slowly track off the northeast 
coast today through Friday. A frontal system will approach from 
the west Friday. A weak cold front will move through the area 
Saturday night. High pressure returns Sunday and remains over the 
area through middle week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
surface high pressure remains nosed into the region as low 
pressure south of Nova Scotia remains and frontal boundary to the 
west moves slowly to the east and weakens. Upper ridge breaks down 
as closed low moves into the ridge and upper trough from central 
Canada pushes into the ridge. GFS continues to handle the pattern 
well keeping moisture and rain west of the area through today. 


Northeasterly flow again remains across the area with filtered sun 
under high clouds. This combination will keep temperatures similar 
to wednesdays highs and leaned toward the cooler mav numbers. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/... 
GFS continues to perform well with the upper trough and closed low 
and weakening cold front moving toward the area. Surface ridge 
holds precipitation to the west tonight into Friday...then is 
weakened as coastal low moves farther west and frontal system 
slides east. Northeasterly flow becomes southerly and frontal 
system moves into the region Friday night. With little cape Friday 
night have just gone with showers. Cape increases 
Saturday...especially in the afternoon so will keep mention of 
thunder Saturday. With weakening system and scattered nature of 
showers will continue with the chance probability of precipitation through Saturday. 


Continue to lean toward the cooler mav number tonight and Friday. 
Saturday with the cloud cover and rain...all guidance numbers similar. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... 
models all similar with cold frontal passage Sat night with the upper trough 
sharpening and closing off over northern Maine and New Brunswick on 
sun. This system will gradually drift southward into the Atlantic 
through midweek. 12z GFS/00z ec keep it far enough east that it 
would not cause any unsettled weather across the area...but the 06z 
GFS was further west. Will keep it dry through Wednesday...but will need 
to monitor trends of this closed offshore system. 


Chance showers/thunderstorms Sat night. Cold front forecast to be south of the 
area by Sun morning with another stretch of dry weather as high 
pressure settles into the northeast. 


Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the 
period. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/... 
calm to l/v winds in place through about 14z. As high pressure 
centered over eastern Canada slides east...winds will take on a 
more easterly flow this morning...then southeast this afternoon. 
With high pressure still near the region tonight...l/v winds expected 
after 00-02z Friday. 


VFR ceilings/visibilities with a broken deck at about 200-250 kft. Northern 
terminals...such as kswf/khpn...will have a middle deck at about 10 
kft. 


Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday... 
high pressure over the area will keep dry weather with VFR ceilings/visibilities over 
the terminals through Friday. Possible sub-VFR Sat as high pressure moves 
offshore and a front moves through the area. VFR likely on Sunday 
and Monday. 


&& 


Marine... 
winds and seas expected to remain below advisory levels through the 
period. 


High pressure over eastern Canada will drift east today...and easterly 
winds will be increasing around 10 knots. Combined with southeast swells... 
seas on the ocean will be building to 4 feet later today before 
subsiding overnight as winds decrease to 5-10 knots. 


A cold front will move across the waters Sat night with winds 
becoming northerly by sun. Expect gusts up to 20 knots on the waters 
behind the front sun and as the pressure gradient tightens on Monday 
between low pressure near Nova Scotia and high pressure building in 
from the west. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
dry weather expected through at least Friday. Scattered rainfall 
of one quarter to one half inch possible Friday night into 
Saturday night. Dry again Sunday into middle week. No hydrologic 
problems are expected. 


&& 


Okx watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...met 
near term...met 
short term...met 
long term...Alabama 
aviation...mps 
marine...mps 
hydrology...met