Weather

432 
fxus65 kpub 272101 
afdpub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 
301 PM MDT Wednesday Aug 27 2008 


Short term... 
(tonight and thursday) 


Currently...with a mixed atmosphere...surface winds are out of the 
southeast with gusts up to 20 miles per hour. Surface dewpoints are in and 
around the 50s with good values of cape. The only negative to any 
thunderstorms on the plains is the presence of a large amount of 
cin. This negative energy...coupled with the slight decrease in 
temperatures because of last nights front...should be enough to keep 
any major convection from forming on the plains. The mountains will 
have sufficient forcing to allow for isolated thunderstorms this 
afternoon. This is especially true for the southern sangres. 


Tonight...few lingering thunderstorms and rain in the evening should quickly die with 
the loss of heating...the skies will clear rather quickly by late 
evening. Winds will shift by middle evening and will become light...once 
the nighttime inversion takes over. 


Thursday...a weak cold front tomorrow morning will allow for 
temperatures to remain around normal. Tomorrow has less of an 
opportunity for any severe weather then today does. The central 
and southern mountains look to have enough moisture and lift to 
allow for isolated thunder. 




Long term... 
(thursday night through wednesday) 


Primary meteorological concerns for the long term appear to be 
probability of precipitation...temperatures and amount of impact healthy western United States 
upper trough will have on County warning forecast area from later in the weekend into next 
week. 


Longer term computer models suggest that upper ridging to remain 
over County warning forecast area from Thursday night into Sunday morning before shifting 
east from later Sunday into next week as healthy upper low moves 
into the Pacific northwest on Sunday and then moves into North 
Dakota by next Tuesday. Another closed upper low then moves into 
British Columbia Canada by next Wednesday. At the surface... 
Lee-side troughing should be noted over eastern Colorado from 
Saturday into Tuesday morning...before surface high pressure 
builds into the region from later Tuesday into Wednesday. 


So for sensible weather for the long term...expect very warm late 
August maximum temperatures both Friday and especially Saturday in 
combination with isolated thunderstorms...some thunderstorms could 
be quite strong on Friday. 


Moist southerly low-level flow moves into the County warning forecast area on Sunday as 
closed low develops over Idaho. Will paint isolated to scattered 
probability of precipitation on Sunday...especially western sections as well as cooler 
maximum temperatures. 


County warning forecast area should then experience generally isolated probability of precipitation from Monday 
into next Wednesday along with temperatures running at to slightly 
above climatological averages this time-frame as zonal to southwest 
flow aloft is noted. Still enough atmospheric moisture to warrant 
isolated probability of precipitation Monday through Wednesday...but not as moist as 
Sunday. 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR conditions are expected across the area for the next 
24 hours...with isolated convection remaining mainly across the 
mountains this afternoon and evening. Winds at kpub and kcos will have 
typical terrain driven southeasterlies this afternoon and evening. 
As the evening progresses the inversion will allow winds to be light 
and mainly out of the north. 


&& 


Pub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$