Weather

342 
fxus65 kpub 101054 
afdpub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 
454 am MDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Short term... 


(today and tonight) 


Today the upper low will drop into northern Nevada...causing increasing southwesterly 
flow over the forecast area. Looks like all areas will become breezy 
to windy by afternoon. Because minimum relatively humidities values 
appear as though they will stay above 15 percent...will not issue any 
fire weather highlights. Although if the dew points do dry out a 
little more...some areas could get humidities below 15 percent and 
with the wind...conditions could become critical with regards to 
fire weather for a couple hours...this is something the day shift will 
have to keep an eye on. With good mixing today temperatures will generally be 
above normal. There will be a bit of moisture over the western mts and high 
valleys...but it does look as though it will be limited. With the 
moisture and favorable orographics will go with isolated probability of precipitation in these areas 
with other areas remaining dry. This evening we may also see just a 
few showers/thunderstorms develop over the southeastern mts as well. Tonight that upper 
low will drop south into southern Nevada...keeping strong flow over the 
forecast area. Ahead of this upper trough middle level moisture will increase 
over western areas...with precipitation chances increasing some especially over the 
SW mts. Late tonight a front is expected to drop into the southeastern 
plains. At this time it looks like it will not make it to the southern 
border. The NAM shows a significant increase in low level moisture 
behind this front...mainly affecting El Paso...Pueblo...Crowley... 
Otero...bent and Kiowa counties with low clouds before 12z Sat. 


Long term... 


(saturday through thursday) 


Saturday-Monday...models remain in decent agreement on synoptic 
features through the period though have slowed the ejection of 
the system with baggy trough now persisting across the region 
through at least Monday. At any rate...the large upper low over 
the southern Great Basin early Saturday morning prognosticated to lift 
out across eastern Utah and western Wyoming Saturday night as 120+ 
knots jet core translates across western Colorado and into eastern 
Wyoming. Broad trough then prognosticated to slowly lift out across the 
High Plains into Monday. Associated standup front moves into western 
Colorado Saturday afternoon and across south central Colorado 
Saturday night before and then elongates as it continues across 
across the far southeast plains through Sunday. Models indicating 
good upward vertical velocity associated with jet spreading across south central and 
southeast Colorado Saturday and coupled with 700 mb baroclinic 
zone...should see widespread convection developing across 
southwest and central mts late Saturday morning spreading across 
the eastern mts and plains Saturday afternoon and night. Models 
however indicating limited available moisture...save across the 
far southeast plains....as subtropical moisture associated with 
the remnants of Hurricane Norbert move across the southern and 
Central High plains. Strong southwest flow aloft keeps warm air 
aloft limiting snow accumulations to elevations to mainly above 
10k feet. Could still see a 6 hour window of heavy snow across the 
central and southwest mts with passage of front...though limited 
duration would lead to low end advisory amounts...with some snow 
possible across the rest of the higher terrain associated with 
stronger convection. Latest Storm Prediction Center convective outlook indicating 
slight risk across eastern New Mexico and into extreme southeast Colorado 
Saturday night. Cant argue with ample shear for one or two 
possible severe storms producing large hail...depending on how far 
north the subtropical tap gets. Have kept slight probability of precipitation across the 
area Sunday and Monday as broad trough continues to move across 
the region with better probability of precipitation across the far eastern plains with 
boundary stalling across the Central High plains. Temperatures 
Sunday rather tricky as best cold advection isn't until very 
late...GFS guidance looked OK for now...but could end up warmer 
near the mountains if front slows more. Main cold surge drops 
through the area Sunday night into Monday...with much cooler temperatures 
on Monday likely. 


Tuesday-Thursday...cooled down temperatures on Tuesday with the 
slower movement of trough with no other changes to ongoing forecast 
with warmer and drier conditions in the offing with upper level 
ridging rebuilding across the Great Basin and western Colorado -mw 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR conditions expected at the three taf sites through today and 
this evening. After 06z low clouds may move into the kcos 
area...and possibly kpub...with ceilings becoming MVFR. 


&& 


Pub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


28/23