Weather

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afdbou 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver Colorado 
235 am MDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Short term...the shortwave over the northern plains is pushing a 
weak secondary front through our area this morning. This will bring 
drier and slightly cooler air in from the northwest...further 
stabilizing the lower atmosphere. Skies should be nearly clear 
today. Current forecast temperatures look fine...except I did drop 
the mountains lows tonight a few degrees. 


Long term...models have a flat upper ridge move across the forecast 
area from Friday through Saturday evening. The flow aloft is 
west-northwesterly through the periods. The synoptic scale energy 
is benign through the period. The boundary layer flow will be 
affected by low level troughing east of the mountains through 
Saturday. For moisture...models have some over the plains and 
foothills both Friday and Saturday. Precipitable water values are 
in the 0.55 to 0.95 inch range through Saturday evening. The 
boundary layer dew points stay in 50s f over the plains through the 
periods. There is some cape over the foothills and plains both late 
day Friday and late day Saturday...more for Friday. The lapse rate 
fields show a middle level cap over the eastern half of the plains late 
day Friday. There is a middle level cap on Saturday as well...and it 
covers more of the forecast area and is a tad stronger. The quantitative precipitation forecast 
fields have minor amounts of measurable precipitation over some of 
the forecast area late Friday...less on Saturday. For probability of precipitation...will 
up friday's to 10%-20%s for the mountains...foothills...and Western 
Plains. For late day Saturday...10%s over the mountains and 
foothills will suffice. For temperatures...friday's highs are 
1.5-3.5 c warmer than thursday's. Saturday's warm up 1-2.5 c more. 
For the later days...Sunday through Wednesday...models still have an 
upper trough moving over the forecast area Monday into Tuesday. 
After that...zonal flow is prognosticated well into middle week. Previous 
shift has altered probability of precipitation accordingly...no changes. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions are expected through tonight. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$ 
Gimmestad/rjk