Weather

532 
fxus65 krev 070954 
afdrev 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Reno Nevada 
254 am PDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Short term... 
no significant changes to the short term grids. 


Weak upper disturbance over Oregon will slide into northern 
California today. This may increase convergence over northern 
Lassen and Washoe counties as light northerly flow behind the 
disturbance runs into westerly flow further south. However...the 
GFS and NAM both depict capping near 400 mb...so high based 
shallow to perhaps moderate cumulus buildups are all I expect for 
northern areas. For Mono and western Mineral counties today...I 
would say a few cumulus buildups again are in order...but based on a 
trend from yesterday's shallow...high based convection I am not 
expecting thunder today. 


Monday...the upper disturbance over California washes out to a 
weak trough with continued above normal temperatures. By 
Tuesday...another disturbance slides through the Pacific northwest 
for stronger westerly flow in the afternoon and evening and a 
slight cool down (3-6 degrees for many locations) in highs. Snyder 


Long term...Wednesday through Saturday... 
models in agreement with the main driver being the strong ridge off 
the coast near 135w in the extended. However...they differ on the 
details...and the ensemble spread is quite high. The main 
differences lie in whether or not a decent...but dry...upper low 
will nose into NE Nevada on Thursday. This solution is depicted by the Euro 
and GFS and would imply a backdoor front with cooler temperatures Wednesday-Friday 
and a little stronger north-NE flow. Naefs takes this low much further 
east in line with much of the GFS/Canadian ensemble members. Despite 
this...will lean toward the high res GFS/ec/Gem and the colder 
solution. In most cases when the high res solutions are in agreement 
and differ from the ensembles they are picking up on something the 
lower res ensembles are not. 


All this means is that temperatures will drop to near normal values by 
Wednesday-Thursday with stronger NE flow at the surface. Temperatures to be in the 
low-middle 80s western Nevada valleys to 70s Sierra valleys. Some warming for 
next weekend as the long wave ridge slowly progresses east. No 
threat for precipitation in this pattern. Wallmann 
&& 


Aviation... 
VFR through Tuesday. Wallmann 
&& 




Rev watches/warnings/advisories... 
Nevada...none. 
California...none. 
&& 


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