Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
906 PM PST Monday Jan 5 2009 


Discussion...no evening update to the public suite necessary 
tonight. Forecast on track. Have updated the marine forecast to 
issue a Small Craft Advisory for winds tonight through Tuesday 
night...and also hoisted a gale and hazardous seas watch for 
Wednesday through Wednesday night as winds increase in advance of 
thursday's cold front. Stavish 


&& 


Aviation...scattered IFR ceilings at the coast and near kmhs. Widespread 
mountain obscuration inland and clouds will thicken and lower to 
widespread MVFR with warm front and increasing rain/High Mountain snow 
tonight. Conditions tomorrow will be similar to what they were 
this morning as the warm front lingers in the morning...and the 
jet stream drifts northward in the afternoon. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 258 PM PST Monday Jan 5 2009/ 
discussion...the polar jet stream is currently draped northwest to 
southeast from about Juneau Alaska...to Seattle Washington...across 
eastern Oregon to southern Nevada. Warm air and subtropical 
moisture riding over the top of a large ridge of high pressure 
centered between California and Hawaii is resulting in a broad 
overrunning pattern across the forecast area with high snow levels 
but only light precipitation across the region. 


Morning reports indicate that mostly rain fell overnight at all 
elevation below tree line from Howard Prairie southward. Reports 
from the Warner Mountains west to Bly Mountain to Crater Lake 
indicate 2.5 to 6 inches of new snow. Water amounts were near 20 
percent even at Crater Lake National Park. Winds have been quite 
strong across the higher elevations of Lake County with the high 
blower Summer Lake gusting over 80 miles per hour early this 
morning. Gusts in the low 70s were also reported at the exposed 
Cape Blanco Headland site with solid gales across the most of the 
waters. 


For tonight another warm frontal wave will push into the coast and 
then across the forecast area through Tuesday morning. Snow levels 
will remain high...fluctuating between 4000 and 6000 feet east of 
the Cascades and between 5000 and 7000 feet from the Cascades 
westward. Precipitation amounts will generally be less than a 
quarter of inch for this event...except along the coast and in and 
near the coastal mountains where they will be a bit higher. The 
bottom line. 


The jet stream will generally lift north through early Wednesday 
after tomorrows warm frontal wave causing precipitation coverage 
and amounts to decrease across the area. Have followed the European model (ecmwf) 
for the most part...but with quantitative precipitation forecast leaning on the low side for the 
period given the primary forcing remaining north of the area. 


A modest front will push into the area late Wednesday through 
Thursday evening delivering another slug of moisture across the 
region. This system should drop snow levels low enough for a few 
inches of snow across most of the mountains and modest rain 
amounts across the region. This still is unlikely to result in any 
river problems across the region. 


High pressure then build in with Norma to above normal 
temperatures across the area and below normal precipitation. 
These conditions are currently expected to persist through th 8 to 
14 day period...which is Jan 11th through the 19th. Confidence is 
high for this pattern change. Btl 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 


California...none. 


Pacific coastal waters...gale watch from late Tuesday night through 
late Wednesday night for pzz350-pzz356-pzz370-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 3 am Tuesday to 4 am PST 
Wednesday for pzz350-pzz356-pzz370. 
Hazardous seas watch from late Tuesday night through late 
Wednesday night for pzz350-pzz356-pzz370-pzz376. 


$$