Weather

098 
fxus65 kfgz 070911 
afdfgz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
210 am MST sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis...moisture will continue to increase across northern 
Arizona through middle week. This will bring a better chance for 
showers and thunderstorms with lower daytime temperatures and warmer 
nights through much of the week. 


&& 


Discussion... 
a weak disturbance moving from east to west across Arizona this 
morning is producing a few isolated thunderstorms across southern 
and central Arizona. The surface layer is still quite dry so not 
expecting much rainfall with these storms. However... gusty winds 
could be seen near these storms. This activity is an indication that 
the anticipated pattern change has already begun. 


A weak trough will persist off the West Coast...while a ridge 
expands westward across northern Mexico. This general pattern is 
forecast to continue through much of next week with increasing 
moisture and chances of showers and thunderstorms. Not expecting 
anything too significant at this point...mainly due to limited 
moisture and instability. An additional moisture surge could occur 
if and when the West Coast cutoff low moves eastward toward the 
state...but timing this feature will be difficult with current model 
runs showing differing solutions. We will keep low storm chances in 
the forecast through next weekend based on this uncertainty. 
&& 


Aviation...for the 12z package...VFR conditions and light surface 
winds of less than 15 kts are expected for the next 24 hours. 
Aviation discussion not updated for amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...see fire weather forecast (fwffgz) for discussion of 
days 1 and 2. 


Tuesday through Thursday...there will be a chance of afternoon and 
evening showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of 
northern Arizona through the period. The greatest chance for 
precipitation along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. 


&& 


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...............mas 
aviation/fire weather.....Jvc 


Visit weather.Gov/Flagstaff for northern Arizona weather 
information.