Weather

755 
fxus65 kfgz 070338 
afdfgz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
830 PM MST Sat Sep 6 2008 


Synopsis...a high pressure ridge will produce a dry weather pattern 
with seasonably warm days and cool nights through Sunday. By 
Monday...a southerly flow will begin developing...bringing 
increasing moisture and a chance for showers and thunderstorms 
through much of next week. 


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Discussion... 
skies are clear over northern Arizona this evening. We did see 
some flat cumulus clouds over the higher terrain and some isolated 
thunderstorms on the south side of Mount Baldy this afternoon. 
The current forecast is good shape with no updates. 


Previous discussion 300 PM MST. Sunny skies prevailed across Arizona 
this afternoon. The air mass remains dry and warm across the region 
today...so high temperatures today have been running 5-8 degrees 
above normal. Even with the dry boundary layer...deep mixing this 
afternoon has resulted in some high-based cumulus over the 
mountains...with a very slim chance of a shower over the White Mountains 
through late afternoon. 


The weather pattern begins to change by Sunday as the drying 
northwest flow produced by the central U.S. Trough diminishes. A 
weak trough will persist off the West Coast...while a ridge expands 
westward across Mexico. This general pattern is forecast to continue 
through much of next week. The flow across Arizona will turn to the 
south or southwest...and should import enough moisture into the 
state for a chance of showers and thunderstorms...starting with low 
chances Sunday...then increasing for Monday and Tuesday. Not 
expecting anything too significant at this point...mainly due to 
limited moisture and instability. An additional moisture surge could 
occur if and when the West Coast cutoff low moves eastward toward 
the state...but timing this feature will be difficult with current 
model runs showing differing solutions. We will keep low storm 
chances in the forecast through next weekend based on this 
uncertainty. 


Jj 


&& 


Aviation...for the 06z package...VFR conditions and light surface 
winds of less than 15 kts are expected for the next 24 hours for 
most of northern Arizona. After 18z Sunday...look for a slight chance of 
thunderstorms over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...see fire weather forecast (fwffgz) for discussion of 
days 1 and 2. 


Tuesday through Thursday...there will be slight chances of afternoon 
and evening showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of 
northern Arizona through the period with the greatest chances for 
precipitation along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. 


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Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


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$$ 


Public...............dl 
aviation/fire weather.....Dl 


Visit weather.Gov/Flagstaff for northern Arizona weather 
information.