Weather

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fxus64 klzk 060907 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
302 am CST Tuesday Jan 6 2009 


Short term...today through Thursday 
GFS continues to be too warm when compared to surface observations 
while NAM initialization seems to be a much better fit this morning. 
NAM also developing some precipitation where strong upglide is noted 
while GFS not hitting it nearly as hard. Echos already evident over 
a large area and overall I feel the NAM has a much better handle on 
the situation. NAM continues to show very slow warming tonight while 
the GFS is much more aggressive in bringing in warmer temperatures. With 
the GFS history of being problematic with cold air and current 
temperature/radar trends supporting the NAM solution...will lean in 
its direction this morning. 


Latest surface analysis places cold front from southern Louisiana to 
west central Tennessee with weak surface wave developing on the 
boundary over central Louisiana. With feature expected to track to 
the northeast...will need to keep precipitation chances going across 
the southeast half of the forecast area at least through early 
afternoon until feature pulls away. 


Will cancel the Flash Flood Watch with the morning package. Low 
level jet axis and highest precipitable waters  located well south of the surface 
boundary at this time and overall rainfall amounts not excessive at 
this point. 


Water vapor imagery indicates split flow continuing with two 
distinct troughs...one in the southern stream and one in the 
northern. Models continue to advertise these separate troughs to 
phase into a deep...nearly full latitude trough that moves into the 
Central Plains by the end of the day with the trough axis crossing 
the state tonight into early Wednesday. 


Main bulk of the precipitation has shifted to the south of the metropolitan 
area where temperatures continue to be just warm enough to preclude 
widespread wintery precipitation. To the north...lead vorticity maximum with the 
associated northern stream trough is spreading additional light wintry 
precipitation across the area. 


Biggest problem remains low level temperatures and potential for any 
additional icing. Will probably need to hold on to Winter Weather 
Advisory through this morning for most areas as temperatures will 
likely hover around the freezing mark with both BUFKIT soundings and 
thermal profiles supporting some freezing precipitation this morning 
and low level temperature profiles continue to show only minimal 
warming through early morning. 


Models continue to hold onto the low level cold air over the 
northeast part of the area with highs likely not getting out of the 
upper 30s to lower 40s. Elsewhere...middle 40s to possibly a few 50s 
over the south supported as low level warm air advection increases 
in these areas. All areas should be above freezing by early 
afternoon at the latest. Will trend towards the cooler met numbers 
this morning as mav numbers appear too warm. 


Aforementioned trough axis moves across the area tonight and reaches 
the Mississippi River by Wednesday morning. Slug of moisture 
associated with the trough swings through the state and temperatures 
will be cold enough to support some light snow across the north but 
only slight chance probability of precipitation are supported and trace amounts are expected. 


Once the trough moves through...high pressure will move into the Gulf 
of Mexico with westerly winds returning and temperatures warming 
back into the 50s area wide. A weak wave drops down in the northwest 
flow Wednesday night and brushes the northeast but only increased 
clouds expected from this feature. Even warmer temperatures expected 
Thursday as upper flow dampens somewhat. 
&& 


Long term...Thursday night through Monday 
northwesterly flow will set up over the midsouth at the start of the 
long term. Meanwhile a middle level trough will be building over the 
Pacific northwest. This trough will dig and drop a cutoff low into 
the four corner states through the weekend. A weak cold front will 
eject eastward and move through the forecast area late Friday into Saturday. 
Only liquid precipitation is expected at this time...as cooler air 
will not filter in till after the frontal passage. 


The aforementioned trough will move south into Texas at the end of 
the period...and stream moisture off of the Gulf into the Gulf 
states. This moisture will interact with a cold front prognosticated to 
move through Arkansas late Monday. Have highest probability of precipitation in the 
south...closest to the moisture axis. Temperatures will be close to normal 
through most of the period. 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 39 33 49 33 / 40 20 20 10 
Camden Arkansas 49 37 57 37 / 70 20 20 10 
Harrison Arkansas 41 31 50 32 / 20 20 10 10 
Hot Springs Arkansas 45 33 55 35 / 40 20 10 10 
Little Rock Arkansas 42 34 53 35 / 50 20 20 10 
Monticello Arkansas 47 39 55 37 / 80 30 20 10 
Mount Ida Arkansas 46 33 55 35 / 40 20 10 10 
Mountain Home Arkansas 40 32 50 31 / 20 20 10 10 
Newport Arkansas 39 34 49 34 / 50 30 20 10 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 45 37 54 37 / 70 30 20 10 
Russellville Arkansas 42 32 52 34 / 30 20 10 10 
Searcy Arkansas 41 33 51 35 / 50 20 20 10 
Stuttgart Arkansas 42 36 52 36 / 60 30 20 10 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 am CST this morning for Baxter- 
Boone-Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Independence-Izard- 
Jackson-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton- 
Perry-Polk-Pope-prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-sharp-stone- 
Van Buren-white-Woodruff-Yell. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...56 / long term...61