Weather

926 
fxus64 klzk 071140 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
640 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Aviation... 
convection will continue to move east across the northern 
terminals. Variable conditions elsewhere in visibility between VFR 
and MVFR. Expect fog to dissipate around 15z. 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008/ 


Short term...today through Wednesday night 
satellite images show clouds approaching from Oklahoma...though most 
of Arkansas is mostly clear. Regional radars show thunderstorms 
moving across north Oklahoma and southern Kansas as expected. 
Temperatures are in the lower to middle 60s. 


A broad upper trough over the central part of the U.S. Currently 
will move to the East Coast by Monday. Another upper level trough 
will enter the northern plains Monday night with an upper ridge over 
the southwest U.S. The upper ridge spreads into the central U.S. By 
late Tuesday. 


Another short wave is making its way through northern Oklahoma and 
southern Kansas this morning...causing thunderstorms in that area. 
Also a stationary front was across central Oklahoma. Expect the 
storms to spread into north Arkansas this morning. Added chance probability of precipitation 
for this morning through the afternoon for the north. 


A cold front will drop south through the northern plains tonight. 
This cold front will move through the area Monday and increase 
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Went Above All guidance for 
Monday and Tuesday. High pressure returns late Tuesday and Wednesday 
with drier air. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are 
expected through the period. 


Hurricane Ike is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. 
Ike is anticipated to continue a northwest track through the Gulf of 
Mexico. 


Long term...Thursday through Saturday night 
interesting forecast coming up for the long term. Tropical weather 
will be influencing our area for Friday and Saturday...at least 
according to our best forecast track of Ike from the hurricane 
center. These systems are likely to change path abruptly...and so 
will be this extended. Upper ridge over our area on Thursday will be 
undercut by warm core low from the Gulf. At the surface...Ike will 
be too far from our area to include any rains through Friday 
morning...but then from Friday afternoon on there will be periods of 
showers or storms in bands of tropical origin. Temperatures will be 
near normals or somewhat above. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 81 63 85 61 / 20 10 20 30 
Camden Arkansas 88 65 87 67 / 10 10 20 30 
Harrison Arkansas 79 62 83 58 / 50 10 20 20 
Hot Springs Arkansas 86 66 85 66 / 10 0 10 30 
Little Rock Arkansas 85 65 86 66 / 10 10 10 30 
Monticello Arkansas 88 65 88 66 / 0 10 20 30 
Mount Ida Arkansas 86 64 85 64 / 10 10 10 30 
Mountain Home Arkansas 79 61 84 58 / 50 10 20 20 
Newport Arkansas 82 63 86 63 / 10 10 10 30 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 87 65 87 67 / 10 10 20 30 
Russellville Arkansas 83 63 84 62 / 10 10 10 20 
Searcy Arkansas 83 64 86 63 / 10 10 10 30 
Stuttgart Arkansas 84 66 87 66 / 10 10 10 30 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 




Aviation...32