Weather

262 
fxus64 klzk 292322 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
622 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Aviation... 
a cold front continues to move through the state with scattered showers 
and thunderstorms developing on and along the boundary. Most of 
the precipitation will diminish after sunset. High pressure will 
then build over the area through tonight with clear skies expected 
at all terminals by the end of the period. VFR conditions are 
expected at all terminals except in and near thunderstorms where 
MVFR to possibly IFR conditions will be possible. Patchy fog is 
also expected around sunrise. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 406 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2008/ 


Short term...tonight through Monday night 
convection fired up this afternoon along and ahead of a weak frontal 
boundary over north Arkansas. This front is prognosticated to move south of 
the forecast area by tonight...with precipitation tapering off behind it. 12z lzk 
sounding suggested that some of these storms could become severe 
in the heat of the afternoon...although larger storms should begin 
to diminish after sunset. Not expecting anything to become too 
widespread...so increased to chance over the south...with slight 
chances continuing in the north. Left slight chances over the 
south half of the state for Saturday...as this area will be 
closest to the washed out boundary. 


The ridge over the eastern Continental U.S. Will build over forecast area the next 
several days...bringing dry conditions through the first part of 
the work week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal through 
the period...with highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s and lows in the 
middle 60s to middle 70s. 


The main focus in the coming days will be Gustav. Most models agree 
it will make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coast by late in 
the period. Increased sky and pop grids along south and southeastern 
Arkansas to introduce the beginning of this system. 


Long term...Tuesday through Friday 
main feature during the extended period will be the remnants of 
Gustav. Appears that the system will track around high pressure in 
the Ohio Valley...and will end up in or near the region before 
heading slowly to the northeast. Much of the region could end up 
to the east of the center of the system...which would be the 
favored area for heavy/excessive rain and some severe weather 
including isolated tornadoes. Given scenario...upped probability of precipitation 
somewhat...and kept temperatures a little below normal given 
clouds and precipitation. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 66 91 67 92 / 20 10 10 10 
Camden Arkansas 67 94 70 95 / 30 20 10 10 
Harrison Arkansas 64 89 64 92 / 20 10 10 10 
Hot Springs Arkansas 68 93 69 94 / 20 20 10 10 
Little Rock Arkansas 69 94 70 93 / 20 20 10 10 
Monticello Arkansas 67 93 70 95 / 30 20 10 10 
Mount Ida Arkansas 67 93 68 94 / 20 20 10 10 
Mountain Home Arkansas 65 91 65 92 / 20 10 10 10 
Newport Arkansas 67 91 68 92 / 20 10 10 10 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 69 93 70 94 / 20 20 10 10 
Russellville Arkansas 67 92 67 92 / 20 20 10 10 
Searcy Arkansas 68 93 69 93 / 20 10 10 10 
Stuttgart Arkansas 69 93 70 94 / 20 20 10 10 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...51 / long term...56 
aviation...56