Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
1059 am CDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Update... 
satellite imagery shows cold front over West Texas...with line of 
showers and thunderstorms purging towards the Oklahoma and 
Arkansas border. Overall it appears trends are on track with 
increasing rain chances west to east over the next 24 hours. Did 
bump up chances in the southwest...where latest radar trends are 
showing convection and faster progression along this portion of 
the band. Updates are out. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 626 am CDT Monday Oct 6 2008/ 


Aviation... 
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this 
afternoon...in association with an upper level system moving 
towards Arkansas. Precipitation will continue through Tuesday as a cold 
front moves across the state. Winds will be gusty this 
afternoon...decreasing by early evening. VFR conditions are 
expected today...decreasing to MVFR to IFR overnight as 
precipitation moves across the state. 


Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CDT Monday Oct 6 2008/ 


Short term...today through Thursday night 
large upper trough was located over the Western Plains early this morning...with 
scattered to numerous rain showers/thunderstorms and rain noted ahead of it. Southeasterly winds will continue to 
increases across the forecast area today...allowing low level moisture to advect northward 
into the region. Middle level clouds have continued to develop/increases from the S 
this morning and expect this trend to continue as well. 


Models still in fairly good agreement with eastward progression of the 
upper trough through the region over the next 24 to 48 hours. Expect rain chances 
to increases over western Arkansas later today. Activity will increases in areal coverage 
and overspread the rest of the forecast area tonight and Tuesday. A few strong storms 
could be possible over western Arkansas this afternoon...but abundant cloud cover will 
limit instability. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible tonight 
into Tuesday...but eastward progression of the upper trough shld keep the threat 
of flooding to a minimum. 


The models continue to indicate that the bulk of precipitation will diminish from the west 
late Tuesday/Tuesday evening as drier air aloft advects into the region. 
Have noted that the NAM still shows a secondary line of convection 
forming along the cold front as it moves into central and eastern Arkansas Tuesday 
evening. There could be a potential for some strong/severe storms if 
the atmosphere is able to recover during the afternoon hours. Will need to 
monitor later model trends. Indicated dcrsg probability of precipitation from the west Tuesday night. Some 
wraparound moisture will result in lingering slight chance probability of precipitation for northern Arkansas 
on Wednesday. Drier and cooler conds return for Thursday and Thursday night. 


Long term...Friday through Sunday 
the extended begins with high pressure centered over the region. 
Much uncertainty enters the forecast by the beginning of the 
weekend. The GFS develops a surface low pressures system over the 
Great Lakes...dragging a cold front towards the state by early 
Saturday. The current model run shows moisture continuing to stream 
into the state...with the frontal boundary moving through the state 
Sunday into Monday. All moisture looks to move east of the state by 
Tuesday. The ecwmf shows a much different solution...with dry 
weather remaining over the forecast area through the weekend. A 
frontal system looks to move into the region by early in the work 
week. Kept slight chances in the forecast over the weekend to cover 
the uncertainty. Will continue to monitor future model runs to get a 
better handle on the model differences. Temperatures will be near 
normal...with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s...and lows in the 
upper 40s to lower 60s. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 83 60 72 55 / 20 80 80 60 
Camden Arkansas 84 66 77 59 / 40 80 80 40 
Harrison Arkansas 77 60 68 53 / 70 90 80 40 
Hot Springs Arkansas 80 65 75 55 / 60 80 70 30 
Little Rock Arkansas 83 66 76 59 / 30 80 80 50 
Monticello Arkansas 85 65 78 60 / 10 70 80 60 
Mount Ida Arkansas 78 64 73 54 / 70 90 70 30 
Mountain Home Arkansas 80 62 69 53 / 60 90 80 50 
Newport Arkansas 85 61 73 57 / 10 70 80 60 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 84 63 78 59 / 20 70 80 50 
Russellville Arkansas 80 63 74 55 / 70 90 80 30 
Searcy Arkansas 84 63 75 57 / 20 70 80 50 
Stuttgart Arkansas 85 64 76 59 / 20 70 80 60 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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