Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
331 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Short term...(today-tuesday) 
the upper heights will be on the rise across the local area today as 
the weak pulse of energy aloft that enhanced the shower activity 
yesterday lifts out toward the northeast. Recent animated water 
vapor imagery showed plenty of middle to upper dry air just west of the 
forecast area slowly shifting east into our southeast Alabama and eastern 
Florida Panhandle counties. However...with the weak surface trough 
or frontal boundary lingering over the western half of the area 
isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible this 
afternoon and evening. At this time...it appears the best chance for 
coverage will be just along or ahead of this frontal boundary across 
southwest Georgia and portions of the Florida Big Bend. With the 
drier air filling in...these showers and storms should be fairly 
brief. 


Monday through Tuesday...the models show plenty of middle to upper dry 
air across the area with the high pressure ridge regaining in control 
across the region. The winds will become easterly with the surface 
ridge axis north of the tri-state area. On Tuesday...the main focus 
will turn to Hurricane Ike...which is currently forecast to emerge 
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on a northwest track beyond the 
short-term period late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The gradient 
will begin to tighten (ese 10-15kts) during the day Tuesday between 
the previously mentioned ridge north of the area and Hurricane Ike 
well to our south toward Cuba. 


&& 


Long term...(tuesday night through sunday) 
the 00 UTC numerical guidance is in good agreement in taking Ike 
into the southeast Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night as the western 
portion of the Bermuda high temporarily weakens. The guidance then 
slows Ike down somewhat as the steering currents weaken. The 00 UTC 
GFS/UKMET and 12 UTC Sat European model (ecmwf) now take Ike toward the Texas coast next 
weekend. The 00 UTC GFDL takes Ike north over the eastern Gulf then 
turns Ike sharply west before reaching our area. The 00 UTC CMC 
forecasts a landfall near Mobile Alabama...and is the only model that 
brings Ike so close to our area. Thus it appears the chances for a 
direct hit to our area may be decreasing...but it is too early to 
dismiss this possibility as there is still potential for errors in 
the model runs. 


With such good agreement among the GFS and European model (ecmwf)...we plan to stay 
close to the GFS solution for our long term forecast. We will limit 
the wind and seas forecast a bit as there is still some question how 
Ike will interact with Cuba...and how that will affect its intensity 
and size. Even if Ike follows the GFS/European model (ecmwf) forecast track toward 
the Texas coast...there will likely be convergent moist flow over our 
area for much of this forecast period. 


&& 


Marine...a weak pressure gradient will remain in place across the 
marine area through Monday night. On Tuesday...the pressure 
gradient will begin to tighten as Hurricane Ike approaches the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on a northwest track. This may result 
in advisory level winds and seas across the offshore waters 
beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday. The latest forecast track 
takes Ike into the central Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday 
evening. This track across the Gulf is very similar to the 
Hurricane Gustav last week. This will lead to extremely rough 
conditions across the waters with the combination of strong east-southeast 
winds and high seas. Additionally...a southeast swell is expected 
to spread across the northern Gulf through the day Wednesday and 
across our marine area Wednesday night into Thursday...which will 
lead to building surf and rip currents along the area beaches. 
For the latest information on Hurricane Ike refer to the latest 
forecast from the National Hurricane Center. 


&& 


Aviation...the rain over south central Georgia is finally dissipating... 
and VFR conditions will prevail until around 09 UTC...when MVFR 
visible will develop at most of the terminals. A brief period of IFR 
visible/gis will be possible...especially at kvld. VFR conditions will 
return by middle to late morning...outside of scattered afternoon 
thunderstorms. Prevailing surface winds will be less than 10 knots. 


&& 


Fire weather...red flag conditions are not expected through the 
upcoming week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Tallahassee 92 72 93 74 92 / 40 30 20 20 30 
Panama City 88 77 89 76 89 / 30 30 20 20 20 
Dothan 92 69 92 71 92 / 20 20 20 20 20 
Albany 93 71 93 71 93 / 40 30 20 20 20 
Valdosta 93 70 93 71 92 / 40 30 20 20 30 
Cross City 93 72 93 73 93 / 20 20 20 20 30 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short-term/marine...Gibbs 
aviation/fire weather...Fournier