Weather

596 
fxus64 kmob 062058 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
400 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...wave amplifying in 
the westerlies as a ridge over the southwest Atlantic into the middle 
Gulf and a trough moving east into the plains interact. Surface high 
will continue over the southeast with increasing 1000-500 humidity. 
This appears in water vapor imagery and metars show middle deck clouds 
coming in from the southeast. Walks outside showed it was altocumulus 
earlier and lowering to nimbostratus. Radar shows showers becoming 
more numerous so we brought probability of precipitation up to chance this evening and likely 
tonight. 


Noting major differences between the NAM/met and GFS/mav on 
probability of precipitation...cited by the previous shift...we also noted in new runs of 
NAM that middle level vortlobe continues embedded in flow centered 
below the top of an East Gulf ridge. This feature does not appear to 
make meteorological sense and thus we agree that it should be 
ignored. The 06z GFS has a vortlobe swinging out of the base of a 
trough to our west which is more uniform to structure concepts of 
ridges and troughs. Deepest moisture along the coast and offshore 
where isentropic forcing is indicated ahead of frontal passage 
Wednesday. Highest probability of precipitation later Tuesday through Wednesday morning as 
low moves east. Associated front moves into western County Warning Area early 
Wednesday and egresses by sunset Wednesday. Not seeing much in line 
of severe weather as we have limited instability and not much low 
level shear. Helicity < 80 m^2/s^2. 


/77 daly 


&& 


Aviation...getting isolated showers forming from Mobile east to 
Crestview with higher coverages of showers/thunderstorms over the 
Gulf east and southeast of kmob/kbfm in zone of increased dynamic 
lift. As the upper trough over Texas moves farther to the east and 
the cold front draws closer...greater expected coverages of showers 
and thunderstorms will result in a mention in the tafs overnight 
(vcnty tsra) and tomorrow (prevail VFR in rain showers with tempo MVFR in 
tsra). /05 




&& 


Marine...we will keep small craft exercise caution headline going 
over the open Gulf waters given 15 to 20 knots winds and seas 4 to 6 
feet. High pressure over the southeast United States is forecast to 
weaken Tuesday as a weak cold front approaches the lower Mississippi 
River valley. The cold front will move east across the central Gulf 
Coast region early Wednesday...and will bring an increase in showers 
and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. A moderate offshore 
wind sets up late Wednesday following the frontal passage. Lower 
seas are anticipated late in the period. /05 


&& 


Fire weather...no hazards near term. Rebounding humidity and probability of precipitation 
today through Wednesday. Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday 
afternoon should be a wet period with scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms...starting over southeast Mississippi Tuesday and 
ending over the west Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama counties 
Wednesday afternoon or early evening. Dry air this week will be 
behind the front passing Wednesday but surface layer humidity will 
stay outside red flag criteria until the weekend when the Gulf opens 
up for some rain chances perhaps Saturday and/or Sunday. 


/77 daly 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 67 82 65 82 / 60 70 70 30 
Pensacola 70 83 69 84 / 60 70 70 40 
Destin 73 81 72 80 / 50 70 70 60 
Evergreen 63 81 63 82 / 40 70 80 40 
Waynesboro 62 82 59 81 / 50 70 70 20 
Camden 62 82 62 80 / 40 70 80 40 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$