Weather

476 
fxus64 kbmx 080429 
afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
1200 am CDT Monday Sep 8 2008 


Update...updated for aviation discussion. 


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Discussion... 


A dissipating frontal zone located just south of central Alabama 
this evening...with another slow moving cold front located across 
Kentucky. These boundaries are best depicted in the dew point fields 
as drier and cooler air resides the farther north you go. These 
boundaries will not be the focus for any precipitation during the 
overnight hours as airmass just too dry at this time. Difficult to 
deal with potential fog development in advection situations and 
utilizing the crossover temperature...but think some patchy 
radiation fog will develop again tonight. Decent low level inversion 
will develop by morning but lesser overall moisture to deal with. 
Therefore...do not think we will experience the dense fog like last 
night but Worth the mention areawide with some spots below 3 miles. 
Will make some adjustments to the hourly temperatures and dew points...but 
overnight lows look reasonable and similar to last night. Updates 
out shortly. 


75 


Previous discussion...after a dry evening coming up...models remain 
consistent with easterly flow developing Monday with the possibility 
of a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm during the day. By 
Tuesday...a surface front will work in from the west with a good 
chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the 
day...especially across the northern half of the state. Any 
lingering showers should be gone by Tuesday evening. 


At this time...it doesn't appear the shortwave driving the Tuesday 
frontal boundary will have any direct affect on major Hurricane Ike. 
Perhaps enough of a break in the central Gulf of Mexico ridge to 
allow Ike to turn towards the northwest and into the central Gulf of 
Mexico by Thursday. Yesterday's models had been showing a more 
significant trough moving across the Ohio and northern Tennessee 
valleys towards the end of the week which could have drawn Ike 
northward towards the central Gulf Coast. This feature appears to be 
much weaker as of today with a general Flat Ridge remaining over the 
southeast...steering Ike on west northwestward track into the 
weekend...bypassing Alabama in favor for the western Gulf. 


Assuming Ike has little impact on central Alabama...we are only 
expected isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at the 
end of the week and through the weekend. 


88 


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Aviation...06z taf discussion. 


Several aviation concerns are starting to show as the overnight 
wears on. First...patchy fog is looking more likely to develop. It 
does not look nearly as bad as last night due mainly to the temperatures 
staying a touch on the warmer side...while the dew points continue to slide 
downward. Have added tempos or prevailing...mainly MVFR conditions 
to most sites. 


The second concern is likely to be convection in the area 
tomorrow...mainly into the later portions of the afternoon hours as 
a frontal boundary retrogrades back across the area. Went ahead and 
included thunderstorms in the vicinity for mgm and toi...while held cumulonimbi for anb...bhm...and 
eet. The general threat for convection tomorrow afternoon should be 
reevaluated at the 12z issuance...for better timing and placement. 


17/klaws 


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Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


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