Weather

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fxus64 kmob 292049 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
345 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Short term...(tonight through thursday)...very little to say 
through Saturday as warm and generally dry conditions are expected 
with highs in the low 90s and low in lower 70s. Then all eyes turn 
toward the southern Gulf where Hurricane Gustav is expected to be a 
major hurricane as it enters the southern Gulf Saturday night. The 
current forecast has Gustav moving in a general northwest motion 
with landfall in south central Louisiana Tuesday morning. Most of 
the 12z model guidance has trended west with the eventual 
landfall...but the spread is still larger than I would like to see. 
The models are having a tough time judging the strength of an area 
of high pressure expected to move across the Great Lakes and the 
associated ridging across the Gulf Coast states. There is currently 
a National oceanic and atmospheric administration gulfstream jet investigating the environment and special 
upper air soundings start at 06z tonight. Hopefully this will add 
some more certainty to the track forecast. We caution all interests 
to not focus on the black line and instead focus on the surrounding 
Cone that still encompasses much of our area...and we are far from 
being out of the Woods. 


Rain chances will begin to increase by Sunday afternoon and really 
ramp up Sunday night into Monday as the outer rain bands from 
Gustav begin to affect the area. Even if Gustav makes landfall in 
south central Louisiana...there would still be significant impacts 
on the area in terms of surge...coastal flooding...rainfall and at 
least tropical storm force winds. The area will also be in the right 
front quadrant of the storm on Monday which is the most favorable 
location for tornadoes. Thus...all final preparations should be 
completed Saturday or first thing Sunday. 


Beyond Tuesday...we keep chances of showers and thunderstorms going 
through late in the week given moist southerly flow off the 
gulfmex...with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day...then 
we will need to start watching the developments with Tropical Storm 
Hanna to the east. /13 


&& 


Marine...the marine forecast for late in the weekend and the early 
part of next week continues to be highly dependent on the track and 
intensity of what is now Hurricane Gustav. High pressure centered 
over Great Lakes this afternoon will be centered along the Middle 
Atlantic States by early Tuesday. This will allow Gustav to move 
northwest out of the Caribbean Sea...across the Gulf of Mexico...to 
near the Louisiana coast by around daybreak Tuesday. This track 
would generate increasing easterly winds and building swells on 
Sunday and continuing into early next week. The large swells with 
long periods of around 10 seconds will likely reach the coast of 
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle during the day on Sunday. 
This will result in a significantly increased risk of dangerous rip 
currents to the Gulf beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida 
Sunday...continuing into early next week. It could also result in 
some runup of water on low lying and unprotected beaches...such as 
the west end Dauphin Island...and for this reason we have gone ahead 
and issued a coastal Flood Watch for our entire stretch of coast. 
Small craft operators should be aware that increasing winds and 
seas...especially offshore...will be likely by the end of the 
weekend and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be required sometime 
on Sunday. All marine interests should closely monitor the updates 
from National Weather Service Mobile and the National Hurricane Center regarding 
Hurricane Gustav this weekend. 12/ds 


&& 


Aviation [18z taf issuance]...VFR conditions continue through 
Saturday afternoon. Generally scattered clouds with bases of 3500 
to 4000 feet...with not enough of a chance of rain to include in the 
taf. May see some patchy fog late tonight/early Saturday...but 
vsbys' remaining above 5sm. 12/ds 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 70 94 73 91 / 10 20 10 30 
Pensacola 71 93 75 90 / 10 20 10 40 
Destin 74 92 77 89 / 10 20 20 40 
Evergreen 68 94 70 90 / 10 20 10 30 
Waynesboro 71 95 70 93 / 10 20 10 20 
Camden 68 95 71 92 / 10 20 10 20 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


13.Jc 
12.Ds