Weather

284 
fxak67 pajk 102030 
afdajk 


Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
1230 PM akdt Friday Oct 10 2008 


Short term...strong occluded front over the central Gulf will 
move to the eastern Gulf by early tonight...then slowly move 
across Southeast Alaska late tonight and Sat. 


Main forecast concern is the wind. Just did extensive updates to 
the zones and marines to pick up the winds and issue new wind 
advisories. All zones now have a Wind Advisory for some time 
frame tonight or Sat. Based on frontal timing in the 
nam12...which looked good as of 18z...the northwest part of the advisory 
area should end midnight to 6 am tonight...then the central part 
in the 6 am to noon Sat time frame...then the far southeastern area 
should end around 3 PM Sat. The far southeastern area will still be 
pre-frontal when the winds drop below advisory levels as lower 
levels of the front will be left behind as upper support moves 
inland. 


Otherwise...rain will be heaviest around the paya area through 
tonight. Am keeping the small stream flood advisory going for 
them through tonight. Further southeast...rain may get locally heavy for 
a short time tonight...but with local rivers and streams fairly 
low right now...do not believe any significant flooding will 
occur. The rain should diminish after the front moves through the 
area. 


Long term... 


Models are in fair agreement through early next week and then 
differences begin to grow...despite some consistency in longwave 
trends. The upper trough over the western Gulf of Alaska is 
expected to move eastward passing through most of Southeast 
Alaska late Sunday night. A shortwave may delay the advance in the 
southern Panhandle until early Monday. Behind the trough flow 
aloft becomes zonal with shortwaves moving across the northeast 
Pacific in the cooler air until the next longwave trough settles 
into the western Gulf toward the latter part of the week. Ensemble 
differences become more significant with the speed and intensity 
of the shortwaves. 


At the surface the pattern is fairly wet. Steady precipitation 
becomes convective over the Panhandle behind the trough...however 
precipitation will become widespread with each shortwave. Winds 
will generally be in the Small Craft Advisory range but brief 
gales are possible offshore on Tuesday offshore with a stronger 
trough. 


&& 


Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 12 PM akdt 
Saturday for akz026-027. 
..Wind Advisory until 9 am Sat for akz024-025. 
..Wind Advisory until 6 am Sat for akz022. 
..Wind Advisory until 9 am Sat for akz023. 
..Wind Advisory until 6 am Sat for akz020-021. 
..Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM Sat for akz028. 
..Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM Sat for akz029. 
..Wind Advisory until 3 am Sat for akz019. 
..Wind Advisory until midnight tonight for akz018. 
..Wind Advisory until 3 am Sat for akz017. 


Marine...Storm Warning for pkz051-052. 
..Gale Warning for pkz011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043. 


$$ 


Rwt/cfd 

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)