Weather

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fxak67 pajk 061417 
afdajk 


Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
617 am akdt Monday Oct 6 2008 


Short term...models through the short term seem to be in fair 
agreement. The two main features over the northern Gulf of Alaska 
is a vertically stacked low near Kodiak Island this morning. 
There are a couple bands of showers associated with this one band 
extends south along 150 west at 12z while the other extends east 
southeast from the Prince William Sound area. Data from lightning 
detection has been reporting a handful of strikes alon the band 
along the northeast Gulf Coast over the last hour or so. There is 
quite a bit of cold area working it way around vertically stacked 
low. Forecast lifted indexes today over the northern Gulf and 
into the northeast Gulf Coast is between zero and minus two with 
convective available potential energy from 200 to 300 over areas for Monday. Have gone with 
isolated thunderstorms for marine zones 051 and 052 as well as 
the Yakutat public zone...as they appear to have the best chance 
today for any activity. Scattered to isolated showers over the 
remainder of the Panhandle today. 


Other main feature is a low developing over the north central 
Pacific that appears to be aided in development by an 150+ knots 
jet. Track of this low should take in onshore between Vancouver 
and Queen Charlotte islands. Southern Panhandle could seem some 
light rain out of this but think that they will likely just see 
the scattered showers. 


Slightly tighter gradient than earlier thinking so have added a 
small craft for northern Lynn Canal for earlier today. Should see 
it subside around midday. Other small crafts are associated with 
developing seas on the outside water mainly by Tuesday morning. 




Long term...large scale trough extends from near the pole 
to over a line from Barrow to Seward and S. This trough has enough 
amplitude to provide cold advection to the Gulf of Alaska from a source 
region in the northern half of the Bering. Large scale pattern is 
progressive and the trough will migrate east of Panhandle about 12z Wed, 
with a second trough digging S from the Bering and into the npac Thursday. 
Note this is associated with the colder conditions for Thursday in the 
forecast pkg. 


The digging trough will support an increasing thermal contrast 
and strong baroclinic waves to tracking NE into the glfalsk, albiet 
the model consensus for the waves is not good yet. 


The model consensus is good until about 00z Friday when the European model (ecmwf) and 
GFS solutions separate on baroclinic wave cyclogenesis. The 
GFS has been consistent and is used as primary guidance. 
The European model (ecmwf) seems to have a problem smoothing together lows on 
the Aleutian chain beginning about 00z Thursday. 


Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for pkz012-041>043-051-052. 




Bezenek/jbt 

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