Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
southcentral and southwest Alaska 
200 PM akst Monday Jan 5 2009 


Model discussion...models are converging on a common solution as The 
Block shifts east. The 12z GFS/European model (ecmwf) are in fairly good agreement 
through 96 hours. This afternoon forecast in general will be based on 
the 12z GFS model. 


Upper levels...blocking pattern is forecast to shift east. Upper low 
over the Gulf moves into western Canada Tuesday and into the central 
Canadian providences Friday. Low complex south of the Aleutians shifts 
north and east to over the eastern Bering Sea/Alaska Peninsula Friday night. SW 
flow sets up over the Gulf as ridge shifts to the eastern 
Gulf/Mainland Thursday evening. The storm track will likely shift north 
with the onset of SW flow aloft and allow low centers and moisture to 
penetrate further into the southern Mainland and Gulf. 


Short term forecast... 
east...Mainland ridge with Gulf low pattern will weaken over the 
next day or so. Brisk gap/gradient flows will weaken over 
southcentral tonight and along the north Gulf Tuesday. Temperatures 
should hold relatively steady with neutral temperature 
advection...though will see cooler temperatures in previously windy areas. 
Temperatures should warm over much of the Gulf and southcentral 
Alaska Wednesday night and Thursday as low center heads toward the western Gulf. 
This center will also bring moisture with a chance of snow to much of 
the northern Gulf by Thursday afternoon. 


SW Alaska... 
long term forecast...offshore flow and cold temperatures will continue over 
the SW Mainland through Wednesday. Temperatures will warm and winds will increase 
across the Alaska Peninsula and SW Alaska as a weather front associated with 
developing low south of the Aleutians moves over the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday night 
and Bristol Bay Thursday. 


Aleutians/Bering Sea...strong easterly winds are evident over much 
of the Bering Sea and central and western Aleutians today. Winds are 
expected to strengthen and back north to northeast as a developing 
storm center moves south of the eastern Aleutians Wednesday. Winds look 
fairly strong over the central Aleutians on the backside of frontal 
trough Wednesday night. Winds combined with snow could produce blizzard 
potential over the central Aleutians Wednesday night and Thursday. 


Long term forecast...a possible break from the well below normal 
temperatures may be in the near future. The weather pattern will be 
trending towards multiple lows moving from the North Pacific into the 
Gulf. The first low that will move into the Gulf towards the weekend 
will warm up coastal areas...but it may not be until the second or 
third low enters the Gulf that the warmer influence is felt further 
inland. 


Aer/alu...watch/warning summary 
public...wind warning 135. 
Marine...Gale Warning...176 
fire weather...none. 


Rmc Jan 09 

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