Weather

967 
fxak69 pafg 062216 
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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
216 PM akdt Sat Sep 6 2008 


Discussion... 
models in decent agreement through first 36 hours and then begin 
to diverge thereafter. Big difference being that the NAM carries a 
cutoff upper level and surface low eastward to the Gulf of Alaska 
while the GFS does not identify this feature. The NAM flattens the 
upper level ridge out over the Alaska Canada border while the GFS 
and the European model (ecmwf) amplify the ridge. This creates the trough to deepen 
over the West Coast and then move easterly. 


Prefer the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) solution at this time as do not 
expect the upper level low to be able to push the ridge flat. 


Expect Chinook winds will develop over the central interior on 
Sunday. Since the Chinook will not be that strong, it is possible 
that some of the precipitation could spill over to the north side 
of the range Sunday afternoon or evening. The trough moves 
northward to the Brooks range by Sunday night which will allow 
upslope rainfall for the northern interior. 


Onshore flow over the Arctic coast and much of the West Coast will 
keep dense fog conditions likely for tonight through Sunday morning. 


As the low moves up into the the Bering Sea Sunday morning...this 
will increase the gradient over most of the West Coast which will 
be the cause for the the marine advisories. A few showers will 
spread northward to the Seward Peninsula by Sunday 
afternoon...however do not expect a big rain event. 


Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none 


&& 


Fire weather...none. 




&& 


Hydrology...none. 




&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230. 
&& 


$$ 


Cf Sep 08 

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